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    Economic complexity-carbonization nexus in the European Union: A heterogeneous panel data analysis
    (Taylor & Francis Inc, 2022) Demiral, Mehmet; Akca, Emrah Eray
    The economic contributions of economic complexity, characterized by knowledge, sophistication, and diversification, are well documented. However, its decarbonization impacts remain unclear and need more research, especially in complex economies. Therefore, this study tests the economic complexity effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) productivity (output per emissions) and CO2 intensity (emissions per capita) for 22 European Union countries from 1995 to 2018. The study follows a cointegration framework considering heterogeneity and cross-country dependence diagnostics. Augmented mean group estimates confirm that higher economic complexity reduces CO2 productivity and increases CO2 intensity. Additionally, energy efficiency (output per energy supply) improvement is found as a key driver of decarbonization. Higher per capita income intensifies emissions, but non-linear income effects do not reveal an environmental Kuznets curve pattern. Deindustrialization improves decarbonization, while environmental tax revenues have insignificant influences. A bidirectional causality is established between CO2 intensity and economic complexity. Overall evidence suggests policies favoring energy-efficient green complexity.
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    Predictors of global carbon dioxide emissions: Do stringent environmental policies matter?
    (Springer, 2021) Demiral, Mehmet; Akca, Emrah Eray; Tekin, Ipek
    This study examines potential predictors of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions with a focus on the effect of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's environmental policy stringency measure which is an internationally comparable indicator of the stringency degree of environmental policy instruments. The study uses a 21-year (1995-2015) panel dataset of 15 large greenhouse gas emitter countries distinguished between high-income and middle-income economies. Reflecting both demand- and supply-side determinants of CO2 emissions, the regression model includes control variables such as industrialization, trade openness, income per capita, energy productivity, and international investment. The results show that higher environmental policy stringency does not help in reducing the CO2 emissions, rather, it significantly gives rise to CO2 emissions in the cases of the all sample and middle-income economies. Additional findings provide no support for the presence of the global adjustment pattern of the environmental Kuznets curve since CO2 emissions and income are found positively associated in both high-income and middle-income country groups and the nexus is even higher in magnitude for high-income economies. Increases in the levels of industrialization and trade openness lead to more CO2 emissions, whereas an increase in energy productivity is considerably mitigating the emissions in both high-income and middle-income economies. Inward foreign direct investment stocks are negatively associated with CO2 emissions for middle-income countries, while outward foreign direct investment stocks-CO2 emissions nexus is positive in high-income countries. Overall evidence suggests that CO2 mitigation actions in both middle-income and high-income countries need to encourage energy productivity and redesign pro-environmental policies by considering the industrial structures of countries.