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    Environmental pollution effects of economic, financial, and industrial development in OPEC: comparative evidence from the environmental Kuznets curve perspective
    (Springer, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Haykir, Ozkan; Aktekin-Gok, Emine Dilara
    Many studies examined the association between gross domestic production (GDP) and environmental pollution to test the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for varied country groups. Although it has useful implications for achieving a climate-neutral world economy, the exploration of the relationship is yet limited for oil-rich economies. On the other hand, the ambiguity of the available EKC evidence addresses the consideration of other pillars of economic development. Therefore, this paper tests the EKC hypothesis comparatively in the separate non-linear effects of financial and industrial development, as well as the traditional GDP-based economic development, on per capita fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bloc. Financial development is proxied by the financial institutions development index, industrial development is measured by per capita industry value-added, and traditional economic development is indicated by per capita GDP. The trade, financial, social, and political dimensions of globalization are also incorporated as control variables in these three models. The paper applies the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) estimator to a dataset from ten OPEC members over the 1980-2019 period. The results clearly contradict the EKC hypothesis and reveal rather a persistent U-shaped pattern for all models in both the short-run and the long-run. In addition, financial globalization is negatively associated and political globalization is positively associated with CO2 emissions. The paper discusses how such oil-rich countries as OPEC may decouple economic growth, financial development, and industrialization trajectories from environmental pollution induced by fossil CO2 emissions.
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    Extra-regional trade and consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions in the European countries: Is there a carbon leakage?
    (Wiley, 2022) Demiral, Ozge; Demiral, Mehmet; Aktekin-Gok, Emine Dilara
    The European countries are committed to making Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050 under the carbon leakage debates. Carbon leakage occurs when carbon-intensive production relocates to environmentally unregulated countries. The trade channel of carbon leakage refers that the carbon-loaded products finally come back through imports and increase consumption-based carbon emissions in the decarbonization-committed countries. This study probes the effects of extra-imports (imports from non-European countries) share on per capita consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions (CCEpc) in the panel of 31 European countries from 1995 to 2018. After identifying cross-country dependence, unit root, heterogeneity, and cointegration, the study applies the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, followed by the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose causality test. The results reveal a carbon leakage pattern that extra-imports share has both associative (positive) and causal (one-way) effects on CCEpc. Other results unveil a strong decarbonization contribution from enhancing renewable energy supply against the carbonization forces of growing extra-exports (exports to non-European countries) share, real gross domestic product, and comparative advantage in high-tech manufactures, while population density's influence is statistically insignificant. Some policy implications including carbon-adjusting border taxes on trade are drawn for regional and global mitigation undertakings.