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Öğe Doğal kaynak zenginliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Çok ülkeli ve karşılaştırmalı bir analiz(Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi / Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2019) Aytekin, Emine Dilara; Demiral, MehmetBu tezde, 13 ülkenin (Ekvador, Mısır, Endonezya, İran, Irak, Kazakistan, Malezya, Meksika, Nijerya, Peru, Rusya, Ukrayna, Venezuela) 1981-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak doğal kaynak zenginliği ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Kaynak zenginliği değişkeninin yanında teorik olarak ekonomik büyümeyi doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak etkilemesi beklenen fiziki sermaye, beşerî sermaye, toplam faktör verimliliği, işgücü maliyeti, döviz kuru ve hükümet harcamaları faktörleri de modele eklenmiştir.Dengesiz panel veri analiz prosedürü izlenerek elde edilen sonuçlar, geleneksel teorik yaklaşımların aksine, doğal kaynak zenginliğinin ekonomik büyümeyi anlamlı bir biçimde olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Diğer bulgular, fiziki sermaye, toplam faktör verimliliği ve işgücü maliyeti göstergelerinin anlamlı bir biçimde ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini gösterirken döviz kuru ve hükümet harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi artırma eğiliminde olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Beşeri sermaye ve ekonomik büyüme arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Genel bulgular, özellikle kaynak zengini olarak adlandırılan ülkeler için bu kaynak zenginliğinin neden olabileceği olumsuz etkileri geliştirebilecek mekanizmaları önlemek için etkin politikaların ve iyi yönetişim uygulamaların önemini ortaya koymaktadır.Öğe Economic complexity-carbonization nexus in the European Union: A heterogeneous panel data analysis(Taylor & Francis Inc, 2022) Demiral, Mehmet; Akca, Emrah ErayThe economic contributions of economic complexity, characterized by knowledge, sophistication, and diversification, are well documented. However, its decarbonization impacts remain unclear and need more research, especially in complex economies. Therefore, this study tests the economic complexity effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) productivity (output per emissions) and CO2 intensity (emissions per capita) for 22 European Union countries from 1995 to 2018. The study follows a cointegration framework considering heterogeneity and cross-country dependence diagnostics. Augmented mean group estimates confirm that higher economic complexity reduces CO2 productivity and increases CO2 intensity. Additionally, energy efficiency (output per energy supply) improvement is found as a key driver of decarbonization. Higher per capita income intensifies emissions, but non-linear income effects do not reveal an environmental Kuznets curve pattern. Deindustrialization improves decarbonization, while environmental tax revenues have insignificant influences. A bidirectional causality is established between CO2 intensity and economic complexity. Overall evidence suggests policies favoring energy-efficient green complexity.Öğe Economic Structure, Globalisation, Governance, and Digitalisation: Global Evidence fromDigital-Intensive ICT Trade(Springer International Publishing, 2021) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, ÖzgeIn this chapter, the authors examine the effects of economic structure, globalisation, and governance indicators on the export performance associated with digital-intensive information and communications technology (ICT) goods. A panel data analysis is performed over the 2000–2018 period for 54 countries grouped into two sub-panels of higher digitally-competitive countries (HDCCs) and lower digitally-competitive countries (LDCCs). The results show that industrialisation encourages ICT exports of LDCCs, while globalisation reduces ICT exports for HDCCs. Higher economic complexity encourages HDCCs’ ICT exports. Better governance discourages ICT exports of HDCCs, while it stimulates LDCCs’ ICT exports. ICT imports and ICT exports are associated positively for both sub-panels. Bidirectional causalities are established between ICT exports and the examined predictors. From a global perspective, the chapter provides some insights on digitalisation within the ICT trade approach. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.Öğe Empirical Links between Global Value Chains, Trade and Unemployment(Economic Laboratory Transition Research Podgorica-Elit, 2020) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, Ozge; Khoich, Aizhan; Maidyrova, AiglThis study purposes to explore the determinants of unemployment in 35 countries distinguished between 18 developed and 17 developing countries over 12 years covering 2005-2016. Unlike the majority of the relevant literature, the study integrates different aspects of internal and external predictors of unemployment focusing on global value chains (GVCs) involvement. The study employs a panel regression analysis to estimate the relationships of unemployment with economic growth, government expenditure, inflation, human capital, population, industrialization, trade openness, and foreign direct investment flows. To what extent countries involve in GVCs are measured by the foreign value-added share of gross exports and domestic valueadded share of gross imports. Empirical results show that it is yet hard to come to a global consensus about a common set of determinants of unemployment in a cross-country aspect. Moreover, the influences of internal and external factors tend to vary substantially across the development phases and structural changes of countries. Overall findings keep the debate about jobless export, the job-carrying function of foreign direct investment, employment gain from trade and trade in employment at the center of the unemployment agenda of both developed and developing countries. The study concludes with some discussions and implications of the evidence.Öğe Environmental pollution effects of economic, financial, and industrial development in OPEC: comparative evidence from the environmental Kuznets curve perspective(Springer, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Haykir, Ozkan; Aktekin-Gok, Emine DilaraMany studies examined the association between gross domestic production (GDP) and environmental pollution to test the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for varied country groups. Although it has useful implications for achieving a climate-neutral world economy, the exploration of the relationship is yet limited for oil-rich economies. On the other hand, the ambiguity of the available EKC evidence addresses the consideration of other pillars of economic development. Therefore, this paper tests the EKC hypothesis comparatively in the separate non-linear effects of financial and industrial development, as well as the traditional GDP-based economic development, on per capita fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bloc. Financial development is proxied by the financial institutions development index, industrial development is measured by per capita industry value-added, and traditional economic development is indicated by per capita GDP. The trade, financial, social, and political dimensions of globalization are also incorporated as control variables in these three models. The paper applies the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) estimator to a dataset from ten OPEC members over the 1980-2019 period. The results clearly contradict the EKC hypothesis and reveal rather a persistent U-shaped pattern for all models in both the short-run and the long-run. In addition, financial globalization is negatively associated and political globalization is positively associated with CO2 emissions. The paper discusses how such oil-rich countries as OPEC may decouple economic growth, financial development, and industrialization trajectories from environmental pollution induced by fossil CO2 emissions.Öğe Extra-regional trade and consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions in the European countries: Is there a carbon leakage?(Wiley, 2022) Demiral, Ozge; Demiral, Mehmet; Aktekin-Gok, Emine DilaraThe European countries are committed to making Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050 under the carbon leakage debates. Carbon leakage occurs when carbon-intensive production relocates to environmentally unregulated countries. The trade channel of carbon leakage refers that the carbon-loaded products finally come back through imports and increase consumption-based carbon emissions in the decarbonization-committed countries. This study probes the effects of extra-imports (imports from non-European countries) share on per capita consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions (CCEpc) in the panel of 31 European countries from 1995 to 2018. After identifying cross-country dependence, unit root, heterogeneity, and cointegration, the study applies the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, followed by the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose causality test. The results reveal a carbon leakage pattern that extra-imports share has both associative (positive) and causal (one-way) effects on CCEpc. Other results unveil a strong decarbonization contribution from enhancing renewable energy supply against the carbonization forces of growing extra-exports (exports to non-European countries) share, real gross domestic product, and comparative advantage in high-tech manufactures, while population density's influence is statistically insignificant. Some policy implications including carbon-adjusting border taxes on trade are drawn for regional and global mitigation undertakings.Öğe Global value chains participation and trade-embodied net carbon exports in group of seven and emerging seven countries(Academic Press Ltd- Elsevier Science Ltd, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, OzgeA vast literature has examined the empirical link between gross exports and total carbon emissions for different country groups. However, countries' increasing participation in global value chains (GVCs) challenges this traditional approach since the gross measures neglect trade-embodied carbon emissions and intermediatesdriven value-added trade. Therefore, this study scrutinizes how backward participation (foreign contents in domestic exports) and forward participation (domestic contents in foreign exports) in GVCs affect per capita net exports of trade-embodied carbon dioxide emissions. The study adopts input-output accounting and value-added decomposition framework for Group of Seven (G7) and Emerging Seven (E7) countries over the 1995-2018 period. (i) Pre-estimation analyses reveal that the net carbon importer G7 group had a comparative advantage in high-tech exports and a lower export product concentration level, while the net carbon exporter E7 group had a comparative advantage in resource-intensive exports and a higher export product concentration level, albeit significant within-group heterogeneities. (ii) The augmented mean group estimates reveal that increasing backward participation raises net carbon exports for both G7 and E7. The forward participation-net carbon exports nexus is negative for G7 but positive for E7. (iii) While economic growth reduces net carbon exports in both groups, the effects of comparative advantages in resource-intensive and high-tech exports differ. Practitioners should be aware of the GVCs-driven carbon circle when assessing decarbonization performances and obligations of countries.Öğe Intersectoral Production-Energy Consumption Linkages and Roles of Multifactor Productivity and Energy Inflation in Developed Countries(2023) Demiral, Özge; Demiral, Mehmet; Gök, Emine Dilara Aktekin; Tunçsiper, ÇağatayThe vast literature on the relationship between production activities and energy consumption in high-income countries mostly ignores intersectoral energy linkages. Therefore, this study investigates the cross impacts of per capita production in agriculture, industry, and services sectors on per capita energy consumption in these sectors, as well as the transport sector, using a panel dataset covering 19 developed countries’ 1990-2019 period. By also controlling the changes in multifactor productivity, energy prices, and population indicators, the study applies the CS-ARDL (cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag) estimation procedure. The short-run and long-run estimations agreeably reveal the following key findings. Agricultural energy consumption is affected by neither its own production nor that of other sectors. Industrial energy consumption is positively associated with its own production but negatively associated with service production. Service energy consumption is increased by growing industrial production. Transport energy consumption is positively associated with agricultural and service production. Multifactor productivity change, which refers to technological progress, is positively associated with energy consumption in all sectors. Higher energy inflation decreases transport energy consumption but increases energy consumption in the industrial and services sectors. The study further discusses why and how developed countries should adjust overall energy efficiency targets to intersectoral energy linkages.Öğe Local Actors of Local Economies: Regional Development Agencies(Eskisehir Osmangazi Univ, Fac Education, 2007) Tutar, Filiz; Demiral, MehmetNowadays, it is seen that, definition, strategies, intervention methods, local actors, organizational and institutional structures of regional development concept have changed. In this context to be able to realize balanced regional development, institutional restructurings and a new management approach from provinces to center based on the participation of non-governmental organizations (NGO), regional development agencies (RDA) and all of local organizations, are needed. Turkey, with the EU membership negotiation process, has entered into a new implementation period giving up the development policy instruments based on substantiates which Turkey used to implement during many years. The basic instrument of this new implementing is RDAs that founded by the thought of every region's resources, advantages-disadvantages, development potentials and requirements are different from others'. In this study the role and importance of RDAs on regional development process will be introduced with their foundations, effects, and cases in the world within the context of Turkey implementations.Öğe Non-renewable energy effects of trade in intermediate and final products: Evidence from emerging industrial economies(Sage Publications Ltd, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, Ozge; Ozturk-cetenak, Ozlem; Ozayturk, Gurcem; Ozayturk, IbrahimThe interest in the trade-environment nexus is growing for emerging countries as their participation in world trade is increasing. However, the available evidence regarding the non-renewable energy effects of trade in intermediate and final products is limited. This study addresses this gap and investigates the separate effects of per capita exports and imports of intermediate and final products on per capita non-renewable energy supply (NES) in the case of 22 emerging industrial economies (EIEs) between 1995 and 2018. The study also considers per capita environmental inventions (EnvINV), industry value-added (IND), services value-added (SERV), and renewable energy supply (RES). After confirming that the modeled variables are cross-sectionally dependent, first-difference stationary, and cointegrated, the long-run heterogeneous coefficients are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group and augmented mean group estimators. Consistent results show that although both are positively associated with NES, the magnitudes of the impacts of intermediate product imports are higher than that of intermediate product exports. Similar effects are observed in the final product trade. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin test finds unidirectional causalities from all trade indicators to NES. Additional results reveal positive impacts of IND and SERV, negative effects of RES, and insignificant impacts of EnvINV. Several policy insights are provided to better inform practitioners about the environmental implications of emerging economies' trade specialization pattern in energy-intensive global production networks.Öğe Predictors of global carbon dioxide emissions: Do stringent environmental policies matter?(Springer, 2021) Demiral, Mehmet; Akca, Emrah Eray; Tekin, IpekThis study examines potential predictors of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions with a focus on the effect of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's environmental policy stringency measure which is an internationally comparable indicator of the stringency degree of environmental policy instruments. The study uses a 21-year (1995-2015) panel dataset of 15 large greenhouse gas emitter countries distinguished between high-income and middle-income economies. Reflecting both demand- and supply-side determinants of CO2 emissions, the regression model includes control variables such as industrialization, trade openness, income per capita, energy productivity, and international investment. The results show that higher environmental policy stringency does not help in reducing the CO2 emissions, rather, it significantly gives rise to CO2 emissions in the cases of the all sample and middle-income economies. Additional findings provide no support for the presence of the global adjustment pattern of the environmental Kuznets curve since CO2 emissions and income are found positively associated in both high-income and middle-income country groups and the nexus is even higher in magnitude for high-income economies. Increases in the levels of industrialization and trade openness lead to more CO2 emissions, whereas an increase in energy productivity is considerably mitigating the emissions in both high-income and middle-income economies. Inward foreign direct investment stocks are negatively associated with CO2 emissions for middle-income countries, while outward foreign direct investment stocks-CO2 emissions nexus is positive in high-income countries. Overall evidence suggests that CO2 mitigation actions in both middle-income and high-income countries need to encourage energy productivity and redesign pro-environmental policies by considering the industrial structures of countries.Öğe Socio-economic productive capacities and energy efficiency: global evidence by income level and resource dependence(Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, OzgeThis study tests the effects of productive capacities in socio-economic factors (human capital, transport, information-communication technology, institutions, private sector, and structural change) on energy efficiency in a sample of 125 countries. Energy efficiency is assessed by energy productivity (gross domestic product per unit of total primary energy supply) and energy intensity (total primary energy supply per capita). The world sample is divided into four income groups and an income-heterogeneous control group of non-renewable-resource-dependent economies. The study utilizes cross-sectionally dependent and stationary panel data from 2000 to 2018. The analysis of variance shows that higher income groups monotonically have higher levels in socio-economic productive capacities and energy intensity. The regression results from appropriate fixed-effects and random-effects modeling reveal varied driver and barrier influences of the socio-economic factors on energy efficiency improvements (higher energy productivity and lower energy intensity). In some cases, predictors scale up both energy productivity and energy intensity indicating the issue of the rebound effect. Higher human capital capacity stimulates energy efficiency except for middle-income groups. Higher transport capacity reduces energy productivity, except for upper-middle-income economies, and increases energy intensity for low-income and middle-income groups. The deployment of information-communication technologies is positively associated with energy productivity, except for low-income economies. Energy productivity performance of resource-dependent economies is improved by higher productive capacities in institutions and private sectors but impaired by structural change, whereas structural change drives energy efficiency in low-income economies. Additionally, the growth of gross national income per capita worsens energy efficiency for resource-dependent economies. Bidirectional feedback causalities are established between energy efficiency and its predictors in most cases. The heterogeneous findings are further discussed for providing research and policy implications.Öğe TESTING THE VALIDITY OF THE POLLUTION HAVEN HYPOTHESIS FOR REGIONALLY LEADING EMERGING ECONOMIES*(2021) Demiral, Özge; Demiral, MehmetThis study tests the validity of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) for the case of six emerging industrial economies with a relatively higher competitive industrial performance compared to the other developing countries in their region. The sampled countries are China (East Asia), Poland (Europe), Mexico (Latin America), India (South Asia), South Africa (Africa), and Turkey (Europe and the Middle East). The study adopts a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) approach to the Pollution-Intensive Industrial Products (PIIPs) and differs from many relevant studies by grouping PIIPs and distinguishing a wide range set of factors between those that directly affect the RCA in PIIPs and those that have indirect effects through attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Estimations of random-effects models over the period 1995-2018 provide weak support for the validity of PHH: Despite inward FDI stocks are positively associated with the RCA indices of higher polluting industries, the environmental policy elasticity of inward FDI stocks is slight and insignificant. The study argues that the evidence of the PHH may change over proxies, measurements, model construction, and (more importantly) the classification of PIIPs that should be considered by future studies while analyzing the PHH.Öğe Türkiye'de sıcak para hareketleri ve ekonomik krizlere etkisi (1990-2006 dönemi)(Niğde Üniversitesi, 2008) Demiral, Mehmet; Tutar, ErdinçÜretim, tüketim, tasarruf ve yatırım gibi ekonomik kararların serbest piyasa koşullarında belirlenmesine yönelik düzenlemeleri içeren ekonomik küreselleşme süreci bir ülke ekonomisini, dış ticaret liberalizasyonu ve finansal liberalizasyon bakımından etkilemektedir. Finansal liberalizasyon süreciyle birlikte sermaye hesabı kısıtlamaları ve sermaye kontrollerinin kaldırılmasından sonra hem yer hem de çeşit bakımından yeni yatırım olanaklarının ortaya çıkması, uluslararası yatırımcıların ve gelişmiş ülkelerin kârlarını maksimum düzeye çıkarmalarına olanak sağlamaktadır. Ancak, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kısa vadeli sermaye hareketliliğinin artması, krizlere kadar varan büyük ekonomik kayıplara neden olabilmektedir.Türkiye ekonomisinde 24 Ocak 1980'de başlayan finansal liberalizasyon süreci, 1989 yılında her türlü sermaye hareketlerinin tamamen serbestleşmesiyle devam etmiştir. Özellikle bu yıldan itibaren yoğun ve kontrolsüz bir şekilde spekülatif sıcak para giriş-çıkışlarının yaşanmasına rağmen, bu hareketliliğin neden olduğu istikrarsızlıkları giderecek etkili önlemlerin alınmadığı görülmektedir. Bu nedenle sıcak para girişlerinin aniden durması ya da tersine dönerek hızlı çıkışların yaşanması 1990 sonrasında, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşanan örneklerinde olduğu gibi, Türkiye'de ekonomisinde meydana gelen ekonomik krizlerde de büyük etkiler ortaya çıkarmıştır.Bu çalışmada, 1990-2006 döneminde sıcak para hareketlerinin Türkiye'de yaşanan ekonomik krizlere etkisi, diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşanan ekonomik krizlerle karşılaştırılarak araştırılmıştır. Bu araştırmalarda, kriz dönemlerinde özellikle sıcak para hareketliliğinin aşırı bir şekilde arttığı görülmüştür. Türkiye ekonomisinde sıcak para döngüsünde gelişen ekonomik krizler, büyük cari açıklar, yüksek reel faizler, sıcak para finansmanı, ulusal paranın aşırı değerlenmesi, spekülatif sıcak para hareketlerinin tekrar hızlanması, kur istikrarının bozulması, ani sıcak para çıkışlarının yaşanması, kurların aşırı yükselişi ve ekonomik krizler şeklinde bir seyir izlemiştir.Öğe VERGİ GELİRLERİNİN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ(2023) Buyrukoğlu, Ayşin; Demiral, MehmetKlasik iktisadi düşüncenin varlığını yitirmesi ile birlikte vergilerin kamu geliri olma amacının yanı sıra maliye politikası aracı olarak kullanılma amacı da ön plana çıkmıştır. Devletlerin en önem- li gelir kaynağı olan vergiler; gelirin yeniden da- ğıtımı, konjonktür ve büyüme politikasına ilişkin amaçlar ile diğer bazı amaçları gerçekleştirme- de önemli bir araç olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışma da vergi gelirlerinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Veri seti 1985-2021 yılları arasındaki vergi gelirleri ile büyüme rakamlarının gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı olarak belirlenmiş ve öncelikle VAR analizi sonrasında ise Granger Nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Sonuç olarak her iki analizde de vergi gelirlerindeki değişimin bü- yüme oranlarını, büyüme oranlarındaki değişimin de vergi gelirlerini etkilemediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.Öğe Where is the gray side of green growth? Theoretical insights, policy directions, and evidence from a multidimensional approach(Springer Heidelberg, 2021) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, OzgeAddressing the geographical relocation of the pollution-intensive gray side of low-carbon green production, our study analyzes potential determinants of green and gray growth performance of industrialized/developed countries (IDCs) and industrializing/emerging economies (IEEs) over the 1996-2015 period. We define green growth by low-carbon output, while we link gray growth to comparative advantages of pollution havens. Green and gray growth models include such predictors as domestic income and foreign direct investment (FDI) together with composite indices for globalization, environmental policy stringency (EPS), industrialization, and control of corruption. Considering non-stationarity, cross-section dependency, endogeneity, and heterogeneity concerns, we employ bootstrap and residual-based cointegration analyses followed by long-run estimations using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators and causality examination through Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Emirmahmutoglu-Kose tests. The key findings of the study are as follows: (i) income is positively associated with green growth for both IEEs and IDCs, whereas the income-gray growth nexus is negative for IEEs. (ii) Although inward FDI stocks are positively related to green and gray growth of IEEs and outward FDI stocks are negatively associated with green and gray growth of IDCs, these relationships are mediated by EPS. (iii) Globalization encourages both green and gray growth for IDCs. (iv) Even though EPS inhibits green growth and encourage gray growth in IEEs, these direct effects widely depend on the indirect effects of control of corruption. (v) IEEs' higher gray growth performance is substantially explained by their increased industrial competitiveness, whereas the link is negative for IDCs. (vi) Control of corruption fosters both green and gray growth in IEEs. Overall, growing gray does not necessarily mean not growing green and vice versa. Globally, the low-carbon benefits of greening countries may be counterbalanced by the environmental costs of graying economies. From a policy perspective, IEEs need to reinforce environmental policies by green efficiency, green industrialization, and anti-corruption plans to decouple economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions.Öğe Where is the gray side of green growth? Theoretical insights, policy directions, and evidence from a multidimensional approach (Feb, 10.1007/s11356-021-13127-x, 2021)(Springer Heidelberg, 2021) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, Ozge[Abstract Not Available]
