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    Location-based optimal sizing of hybrid renewable energy systems using deterministic and heuristic algorithms
    (Wiley, 2021) Demolli, Halil; Dokuz, Ahmet Sakir; Ecemis, Alper; Gokcek, Murat
    The application of renewable energy sources in electrical energy generation is becoming widespread due to the decrease of installation costs and the increase of environmental concerns. Hybrid power generation systems are advantageous to meet the load demand, but optimal sizing is the main concern for having a cost-effective system based on given load demand and techno-economic indicators. This paper proposes a deterministic algorithm and utilizes genetic and artificial bee colony (ABC) optimization algorithms for optimal sizing of PV/battery and PV/WT/battery hybrid systems with minimum levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) constraint for two locations, Nigde and Bozcaada, in Turkey. The loss of power supply probability (LPSP) is used to build a reliable system and to make sure that the system produces required energy. Experimental results showed that optimal sizing of each location is different due to different wind and solar characteristics of locations. PV/battery model is more suitable for Nigde location with 1.22% LPSP and 0.1514 [$/kWh] LCOE, while PV/WT/battery model is more cost-efficient for Bozcaada location with 1.952% LPSP and 0.0872 [$/kWh] LCOE. Time performances of the algorithms are also investigated. It has been seen that the ABC algorithm has better performance and less execution time. This study demonstrated that heuristic algorithms are more applicable than deterministic algorithms, due to fast discovery of optimal solutions for hybrid renewable energy systems.
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    Wind power forecasting based on daily wind speed data using machine learning algorithms
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2019) Demolli, Halil; Dokuz, Ahmet Sakir; Ecemis, Alper; Gokcek, Murat
    Wind energy is a significant and eligible source that has the potential for producing energy in a continuous and sustainable manner among renewable energy sources. However, wind energy has several challenges, such as initial investment costs, the stationary property of wind plants, and the difficulty in finding wind-efficient energy areas. In this study, long-term wind power forecasting was performed based on daily wind speed data using five machine learning algorithms. We proposed a method based on machine learning algorithms to forecast wind power values efficiently. We conducted several case studies to reveal performances of machine learning algorithms. The results showed that machine learning algorithms could be used for forecasting long-term wind power values with respect to historical wind speed data. Furthermore, the results showed that machine learning-based models could be applied to a location different from model-trained locations. This study demonstrated that machine learning algorithms could be successfully used before the establishment of wind plants in an unknown geographical location whether it is logical by using the model of a base location.