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    RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY SECURITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A BOOTSTRAP PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS
    (Vysoka Skola Ekonomicka, 2022) Kartal, Goekhan
    This study is aimed to examine the relationship causality between energy security and growth for a total of 74 countries including 39 high-income countries, 23 upper-middle -income countries, and 12 lower-middle-income countries by using the Konya ' s (Konya, 2006) Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality approach. According to the results obtained, it has been determined unidirectional causality relationship from energy security risk level to GDP for 14 countries and from GDP to energy security risk level for 20 countries. On the other hand, there is bidirectional causality between energy security risk level and GDP for 22 countries, while there is no causality between energy security risk level and GDP for 18 countries. Moreover, the results are also demonstrated that the rate of detection of a causality relationship increases as one moves from high-income group countries to lower-middle-income group countries. The results, which evidence the existence of a relationship between energy security risk level and economic growth for many countries, reveal the importance of the policies to be implemented in this direction.
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    THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES UNDER MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL BREAKS: THE CASE OF TURKEY
    (Mehmet Akif Ersoy Univ, 2023) Kartal, Goekhan
    In this study, the long-term relationship between inflation and international oil prices under multiple structural breaks in Turkey is analyzed using the data between 1960 and 2020. In this context, techniques, which multiple structural break unit root test suggested by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) and multiple structural break cointegration test suggested by Maki (2012), were used. As a result of the cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks, important structural break dates were obtained and, at the same time, the existence of a cointegration relationship between variables was determined, unlike Engle-Grang (1987) Cointegration Test results. FMOLS test results performed for the coefficient estimation show that a 1% increase in oil prices increases inflation by approximately 0.52% in the long-term. On the other hand, in the short-term, a 1% increase in oil prices increases inflation by approximately 0.35%. This results shows that oil price pass-through into inflation is moderate in long term under structural breaks in Turkey.