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    Are the effects of energy security on economic growth symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? An application of non-linear ARDL
    (Ege Univ, Fac Economics & Admin Sciences, 2022) Kartal, Gokhan
    This paper is examined whether the relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level is symmetric or asymmetric in the case of Turkey between 1980 and 2018. What makes different of this study from the others few studies that examine the effects of energy security on economic growth by considering the 4A of energy security is that it examines the asymmetric impacts of energy security on economic growth by using the NARDL method. Accordingly, the results of the linear ARDL demonstrate that there is no long-term relationship between energy security risk level and economic growth. On the other hand, the results of the non-linear ARDL indicate that there is an asymmetrical relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level both in the long and short-term. Furthermore, according to the NARDL results, a 1% increase in energy security risk level decreases economic growth by approximately 0.60%, while a 1% decrease in energy security risk level increases economic growth by approximately 1.72%. These results demonstrate that economic growth in Turkey is significantly affected by positive and negative changes in the energy security risk level. Therefore, the results reveal the importance of policies to ensure energy security and allow for important policy implications for policymakers.
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    THE EFFECTS OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SHOCKS IN ENERGY SECURITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY
    (Editura Ase, 2022) Kartal, Gokhan
    In this study, it is aimed to examine the causality relationship between energy security and growth in Turkey between the years 1980-2018, using Asymmetric Causality Test proposed by Hatemi-J (2012). The most important factor that makes this study important is that it is the only study to examine the asymmetric relationship between energy security and economic growth among the few studies that empirically examine the effects of energy security on economic growth. According to the classical causality analysis performed in this study, there is not causality relationship between energy security and economic growth. The Asymmetric Causality Test results of Hatemi-J (2012) reveals that there is one-way causality relationship from an increase in the energy security risk level (i.e., a positive shocks) to a negative shock in GDP, while there is not the causality relationship from a decrease in the energy security risk level (i.e., a negative shocks) to growth. This result, which implies that the effects of positive and negative shocks on growth are different at the level of energy security risk, demonstrate that the priority policies for energy security are the measures to prevent the emergence of factors that increase the energy security risk level.
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    The Relationship between Energy Security and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel of Turkic World Countries
    (Ahmet Yesevi Univ, 2022) Kartal, Gokhan
    Energy, which is the most strategic input of the modern world economy, is also an important element of international political competition. Although many studies in the current empirical literature provide evidence for the role of energy in economic growth, there are few studies in the empirical literature on energy security. In this context, it is aimed to make an important contribution to the literature with this study that examines the relationship between energy security and growth in the years 1992 to 2016 with the panel data set consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which are among the countries of the Turkic World. The Cross-section dependence has been determined in the data set used in the study, and it has been determined that the variables are stationary at the first difference by the CIPS test, which is one of the econometric methods suitable for this situation. Then, it has been concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables by the panel Durbin-Hausman cointegration test. According to the AMG estimator, a 1% increase in energy security risk reduces economic growth by approximately 0.95%. These results demonstrate that energy security is an important policy issue for the Turkic World countries and emphasizes the importance of policies to be implemented in this direction.
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    THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY SECURITY AND MILITARY EXPENDITURES: A BOOTSTRAP PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR ENERGY EXPORTER COUNTRIES
    (Sveuciliste Josipa Jurja Strossmayera & Osijeku, Ekonomski Fak, 2023) Kartal, Gokhan
    Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship between military expenditures and energy security risk levels. In this context, the main purpose of the study is to investigate whether military expenditures have a role in ensuring energy security and to perform a pioneering study examining the relationship between energy security and military expenditures. In addition, the variables of economic growth and energy export revenues are also included in empirical analysis.Methodology: The Konya (2006) bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is used in empirical analysis. The analysis covers 16 major energy exporter countries and the years 1990 and 2018.Results: It was found that there is one-directional causality from military expenditures to energy security risk levels for three countries, and from energy security risk levels to military expenditures for two countries. On the other hand, it was determined that there is one-directional causality from energy security risk levels to economic growth for four countries, from economic growth to energy security risk levels for two countries, from energy security risk level to energy export revenues for four countries, and from energy export revenues to energy security risk levels for one country. Moreover, it was determined that there is bidirectional causality between energy security risk levels and economic growth for four countries, and between energy security risk levels and energy export revenues for two countries.Conclusion: The results obtained in this study demonstrate that the causality relationship between energy portant economic consequences for energy-exporting countries through its eff ects on diff erent variables.