Hazard functions and conditional probability of earthquake occurrences in major fault zones in Turkey

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dc.contributor.authorKaraca, Hakan
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-07T13:24:27Z
dc.date.available2024-11-07T13:24:27Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentNiğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractAmong several distribution characteristics, temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes provide the most crucial information on the temporal patterns of past seismicity. Identification of such patterns is required for seismic hazard, forecast studies and also simulation of future seismicity. The confusion of how to model the past temporal patterns does limit further development:. Though the Poisson model is routinely used in hazard modelling, its validity is often questioned. Furthermore, the question as to which model best represent past temporal patterns of earthquake occurrence is not answered yet. Within this context, in this study, to investigate the interevent time (IET) distribution, two seismically active regions in Turkey are selected where the seismic activity never diminishes and the hazard remains high. These regions, namely the western end of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and East Anatolian Fault Zone are known to produce moderate or large magnitude earthquakes. Four distributions, namely, exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal models are tested for how well they fit the earthquake records of the two faults, and importantly, the hazard functions that is instantaneous rate of occurrence of events, and conditional probabilities are also developed for performance evaluation. In the end, it is observed that, each model has flaws in identification of temporal pattern of earthquake occurrences and forecasting earthquakes.
dc.identifier.doi10.30495/ijes.2022.1952666.1722
dc.identifier.endpage76
dc.identifier.issn2008-8779
dc.identifier.issn2228-785X
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85160345439
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage67
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.30495/ijes.2022.1952666.1722
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11480/14126
dc.identifier.volume15
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000995918200001
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherIslamic Azad Univ, Mashhad Branch
dc.relation.ispartofIranian Journal of Earth Sciences
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241106
dc.subjectInterevent times
dc.subjectHazard Functions
dc.subjectConditional Probability of Earthquakes
dc.subjectNorth Anatolian Fault
dc.subjectEast Anatolian Fault
dc.titleHazard functions and conditional probability of earthquake occurrences in major fault zones in Turkey
dc.typeReview Article

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