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    Budget Deficit Sustainability of Selected Developed and Developing Countries During Covid-19 Pandemic
    (Springer Nature, 2022) Alper, Findik Ozlem; Alper, Ali Eren; Ozayturk, Gurcem
    The sustainability of budget deficits is one of the determining factors regarding the sustainability of economic policies. Nevertheless, the Covid-19 pandemic, which has been effective all over the world since the first days of the year 2020, caused a rise in the public expenditures of countries, whereas a decline in public revenues, and hence, budget deficits. Based on the intertemporal budget constraint approach, this study aims to investigate the sustainability of the budget deficit in the G-7 countries as well as the selected developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey, during the periods before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, employing the (Quintos, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 13:409–417, 1995) methodology. In the study, where the Fourier KPSS unit root and Fourier ADL cointegration tests, which take into account both smooth and sharp structural breaks, are performed, the existence of a cointegrated relationship is examined in all countries included in the analysis, and the long-term coefficients are determined by employing the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods. The estimation results indicate that budget deficits sustainability is in strong form merely in Germany, Japan, Russia, and Turkey throughout both periods. It is determined that the budget deficits, which were in a strong sustainable form for Italy during the pre-Covid-19 period, have transformed into a weak sustainable form throughout the pandemic period. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022.
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    Dynamics of technological unemployment, leadership, and entrepreneurship during the industry 4.0 revolution
    (Apple Academic Press, 2023) Alper, Ali Eren; Alper, Findik Özlem; Ozayturk, Gurcem
    Throughout the process from the First Industrial Revolution that began with the invention of the steam engine to Industry 4.0, each of the industrial revolutions has led to a technological and economic paradigm shift. The First Industrial Revolution, which included water and steam power for mechanization and began in the 18th century, was followed by the Second Industrial Revolution, which used electrical power for mass production, and the Third Industrial Revolution was experienced in the 1970s along with the introduction of electronics and information technologies. By the dawn of the 21st century, the Industry 4.0 revolution, which can be described as multidimensional, has come into existence covering various modern automation systems and digital software domains. New technological developments that have been accelerated by Industry 4.0, which first emerged in Hannover, Germany in 2011, have caused changes both at the micro-level (productivity in production, cost advantage, profitability, etc.) and at the macro-level (growth, employment, education, investment environment, human resources, entrepreneurship, etc.). The most important discussion of the Industry 4.0 revolution, in which leaders with innovative ideas and entrepreneurial characteristics were quite influential on its occurrence, involves the extent to which it will affect working life and unemployment. There are various views on this issue that can be classified as optimistic and pessimistic. The optimistic view asserts that a highly qualified labor force can persist in working life through human-machine interaction, whereas the pessimistic approach argues that with the inclusion of machines in production, the need for labor force will decline, and thus, unemployment will increase. As a result, while each new technology causes unemployment by adversely affecting certain sectors and business lines, the culture of entrepreneurship and the changing perception of leadership contribute to the emergence of new business lines and new job opportunities. In this study, the development and characteristics of industrial revolutions in the historical process are examined and some detections are made by discussing the impacts of Industry 4.0 in working life within the framework of unemployment, leadership, and entrepreneurship culture. © 2023 by Apple Academic Press, Inc. All rights reserved.
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    Non-renewable energy effects of trade in intermediate and final products: Evidence from emerging industrial economies
    (Sage Publications Ltd, 2023) Demiral, Mehmet; Demiral, Ozge; Ozturk-cetenak, Ozlem; Ozayturk, Gurcem; Ozayturk, Ibrahim
    The interest in the trade-environment nexus is growing for emerging countries as their participation in world trade is increasing. However, the available evidence regarding the non-renewable energy effects of trade in intermediate and final products is limited. This study addresses this gap and investigates the separate effects of per capita exports and imports of intermediate and final products on per capita non-renewable energy supply (NES) in the case of 22 emerging industrial economies (EIEs) between 1995 and 2018. The study also considers per capita environmental inventions (EnvINV), industry value-added (IND), services value-added (SERV), and renewable energy supply (RES). After confirming that the modeled variables are cross-sectionally dependent, first-difference stationary, and cointegrated, the long-run heterogeneous coefficients are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group and augmented mean group estimators. Consistent results show that although both are positively associated with NES, the magnitudes of the impacts of intermediate product imports are higher than that of intermediate product exports. Similar effects are observed in the final product trade. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin test finds unidirectional causalities from all trade indicators to NES. Additional results reveal positive impacts of IND and SERV, negative effects of RES, and insignificant impacts of EnvINV. Several policy insights are provided to better inform practitioners about the environmental implications of emerging economies' trade specialization pattern in energy-intensive global production networks.
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    Testing the long-run impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and globalization on ecological footprint: new evidence from Fourier bootstrap ARDL and Fourier bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto test results
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Alper, Ali Eren; Alper, Findik Ozlem; Ozayturk, Gurcem; Mike, Faruk
    The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of economic growth, energy consumption, and the economic globalization process on ecological footprints in the top 10 countries that cause the highest carbon dioxide emissions in the world. The analyses were conducted on annual observations from 1970 to 2017 (a different range for each country) employing the Fourier bootstrap ARDL cointegration method developed by Yilanci et al. (2020) and the Fourier bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality method developed by Nazlioglu et al. (2016). In the cointegration approach, an additional F-test provides better insights to define degenerate cases and the bootstrap test performance is powerful than the asymptotic test. In this context, Fourier bootstrap ARDL test results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between ecological footprint and economic growth, energy consumption, and economic globalization in seven countries-namely, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. According to long-run coefficients, in general, economic growth and energy consumption have negative effects on ecological footprint, whereas economic globalization has a positive effect on the ecological footprint for these countries. To evaluate it more specifically, (i) real gross domestic product per capita has positive and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in China, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, except for Germany. (ii) Energy consumption per capita also has positive and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in China, Germany, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, except for Indonesia. (iii) Finally, the economic globalization process has negative and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in Canada, China, India, and Saudi Arabia, except for Indonesia. On the other hand, Fourier bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality test results show a mixed character. Governments should take action to reduce the negative effects of the climate crisis as immediate as possible, which has been widely expressed recently. Among these, increasing the use of renewable energy sources and new carbon-free technologies in the production process appears as important policy tools.
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    The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Turkish Economy: New Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Analysis
    (Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2022) Mike, Faruk; Ozayturk, Gurcem; Kizilkaya, Oktay
    This study aims to analyse the short and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance in the Turkish economy by using the quarterly observations for the period from 1998:1 to 2019:3. Fourier KPSS cointegration analysis was applied to investigate the existence of a cointegration relationship between the series. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relationship between trade balance and real effective exchange rate, national income, and foreign income in Turkey. The findings show that the real effective exchange rate and the foreign income level have positive and statistically significant effects on the trade balance in Turkey. In contrast, the national income level negatively and statistically significantly impacts the trade balance. Finally, Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to investigate short-run effects between the series in the study. Like the long-run findings, the short-run test results also show positive outcomes for real effective exchange rate and foreign income, whereas negative effects for foreign income.