The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Turkish Economy: New Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Analysis
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Sosyoekonomi Soc
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study aims to analyse the short and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance in the Turkish economy by using the quarterly observations for the period from 1998:1 to 2019:3. Fourier KPSS cointegration analysis was applied to investigate the existence of a cointegration relationship between the series. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relationship between trade balance and real effective exchange rate, national income, and foreign income in Turkey. The findings show that the real effective exchange rate and the foreign income level have positive and statistically significant effects on the trade balance in Turkey. In contrast, the national income level negatively and statistically significantly impacts the trade balance. Finally, Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to investigate short-run effects between the series in the study. Like the long-run findings, the short-run test results also show positive outcomes for real effective exchange rate and foreign income, whereas negative effects for foreign income.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade, Fourier Cointegration, Turkey
Kaynak
Sosyoekonomi
WoS Q Değeri
N/A
Scopus Q Değeri
N/A
Cilt
30
Sayı
52
