Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Seismological Soc China & Inst Geophysics, China Earthquake Admin
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
spatial pattern, Markov chain, spatially smoothed seismicity, seismic activity rate
Kaynak
Earthquake Science
WoS Q Değeri
N/A
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
33
Sayı
2
