Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections

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dc.authoridKaraca, Hakan/0000-0003-3291-5822
dc.contributor.authorKaraca, Hakan
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-07T13:24:24Z
dc.date.available2024-11-07T13:24:24Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentNiğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.
dc.identifier.doi10.29382/eqs-2020-0098-05
dc.identifier.endpage106
dc.identifier.issn1674-4519
dc.identifier.issn1867-8777
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85103064219
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage98
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.29382/eqs-2020-0098-05
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11480/14076
dc.identifier.volume33
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000628557200005
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSeismological Soc China & Inst Geophysics, China Earthquake Admin
dc.relation.ispartofEarthquake Science
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241106
dc.subjectspatial pattern
dc.subjectMarkov chain
dc.subjectspatially smoothed seismicity
dc.subjectseismic activity rate
dc.titleApplication of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections
dc.typeArticle

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