A Quantitative Study on the Earthquake Forecast Verification for the Northwestern Turkey
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Seismic events have a pattern of recurrence in magnitude, time and space. Considerable effort is being spent to identifyseismic patterns and successfully predict future earthquakes by using the recognized patterns. As a result of these intensiveefforts, a variety of methods has been proposed. As the knowledge and experience in the field accumulated in parallel to thevariety of the methods proposed, it was deemed necessary to test the performance of some of the highlighted methods,especially considering the wide reception of methods utilizing SSS, PI and RI. The performance of these methods inforecasting the earthquakes has been selected for investigation.The investigated area is the region bounded by 270-320E in longitudes and 39.80-420N in latitudes, well known for the NorthAnatolian Fault. The period of coverage has been selected such as to maximize the length with the minimum magnitude ofcompleteness. As a result of such optimization, the period from 1973 to 2019 has been selected with minimum magnitude ofcompleteness being determined as 3.8. In order to measure the relative performance of the methods, ROC analysis has beenutilized. The method based on SSS has been adapted to the related ROC procedures, while the results of PI and RI methodsare already suitable for the evaluation by ROC procedures.After the analysis was completed, according to the ROC procedures, none of the methods were singled out in forecastperformance. However, when the ratio of hits versus total alarms and the area covered by the alarms, PI method outperformstwo other methods by its efficiency.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Jeokimya ve Jeofizik, Jeoloji, İstatistik ve Olasılık
Kaynak
International journal of advances in engineering and pure sciences (Online)
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
32
Sayı
2
