A Quantitative Study on the Earthquake Forecast Verification for the Northwestern Turkey

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dc.contributor.authorKaraca, Hakan
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-07T13:19:34Z
dc.date.available2024-11-07T13:19:34Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentNiğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractSeismic events have a pattern of recurrence in magnitude, time and space. Considerable effort is being spent to identifyseismic patterns and successfully predict future earthquakes by using the recognized patterns. As a result of these intensiveefforts, a variety of methods has been proposed. As the knowledge and experience in the field accumulated in parallel to thevariety of the methods proposed, it was deemed necessary to test the performance of some of the highlighted methods,especially considering the wide reception of methods utilizing SSS, PI and RI. The performance of these methods inforecasting the earthquakes has been selected for investigation.The investigated area is the region bounded by 270-320E in longitudes and 39.80-420N in latitudes, well known for the NorthAnatolian Fault. The period of coverage has been selected such as to maximize the length with the minimum magnitude ofcompleteness. As a result of such optimization, the period from 1973 to 2019 has been selected with minimum magnitude ofcompleteness being determined as 3.8. In order to measure the relative performance of the methods, ROC analysis has beenutilized. The method based on SSS has been adapted to the related ROC procedures, while the results of PI and RI methodsare already suitable for the evaluation by ROC procedures.After the analysis was completed, according to the ROC procedures, none of the methods were singled out in forecastperformance. However, when the ratio of hits versus total alarms and the area covered by the alarms, PI method outperformstwo other methods by its efficiency.
dc.identifier.doi10.7240/jeps.526906
dc.identifier.endpage127
dc.identifier.issn2636-8277
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.startpage118
dc.identifier.trdizinid369128
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.526906
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/369128
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11480/13194
dc.identifier.volume32
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizin
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.ispartofInternational journal of advances in engineering and pure sciences (Online)
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241107
dc.subjectJeokimya ve Jeofizik
dc.subjectJeoloji
dc.subjectİstatistik ve Olasılık
dc.titleA Quantitative Study on the Earthquake Forecast Verification for the Northwestern Turkey
dc.typeArticle

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